A SERIOUS QUESTION FOR A SERIOUS BRAIN | Forums

[NovaDarkStorm]

Sorry I dunno where the . come from... it's over 65 million.

[lespritdelescal]

Okay, so I attempted to have a go at this, but determining the probability is very difficult, because every location's probability would be different.

Let's start with the fact that XBL services are currently only available in the following 26 countries:

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States

That said, people in other countries can have XBL accounts by registering as though they are from one of the countries above. However, I will not be including them in my discussion, because the chance of running into someone from those areas is very small.

The countries listed above have an approixmate total population of 2,282,000,000.

If all the countries above were put together, close to 1 in 2075 people would have played trials. However, over half the total population is located in India, where the actual penetration of XBOX Live would be very small. If we were to remove India from the equation (nothing against India - I've been there twice and I absolutely love it), the probability of meeting someone who has an account that played Trials rises to 1 in 906. Even if we were to take the registered accounts from India out of the equation, this number likely wouldn't change much.

If you were knocking on doors like mentioned in previous examples, you could increase your chances by going to a college town, or by avoiding old folks homes. Please don't go hang out by some highschool, Raist. I know it'll probably increase your chances, but we don't want you getting arrested.

[rlmergeuser]

good job les. I'm impressed

[jonofthejungle9]

Lots of serious thought going into this!
Good question tho!

[ihazfaults]

Your chances go down when you factor in the odds that most likely that person is hunkered down in a dark room somewhere with food and water playing Trials HD nonstop!