1. #31
    Originally Posted by dagrommit Go to original post
    I don't know if you are practicing to be a troll or if you are truly thinking you are being insightful or helpful but what is your point. I know games have bugs, my point was if in fact a bug is the cause of the OPs frustration then the devs should be looking into it. You proceed to post me an article about a game that the devs are LOOKING INTO FIXING. Welcome to comprehension
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  2. #32
    dagrommit's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    How is the sample size too small? If the loot rules explicitly state that heroic enemies GUARANTEE at least high end quality
    OP made no mention of purple loot. Anyhow, while it's been a long time since the SOTG, Nikki only talked about item power, not item quality (i.e. high end). Someone who gets a purple item dropped (rather than from a open world box) on heroic should compare the item power (see previous link) vs a high-end item.

    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    I don't know if you are practicing to be a troll or if you are truly thinking you are being insightful or helpful but what is your point. I know games have bugs, my point was if in fact a bug is the cause of the OPs frustration then the devs should be looking into it. You proceed to post me an article about a game that the devs are LOOKING INTO FIXING. Welcome to comprehension
    I am pointing out that bugs are not exclusive to the Division franchise, and that they often take much more effort to fix than people think they should - the inventory wipe issue has been ongoing for a month. That was easy to identify because of how widespread it was. Any loot quality issue is going to be tougher to identify without sufficient data demonstrating it.
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  3. #33
    Originally Posted by dagrommit Go to original post
    It's been a long time, but I believe Nikki stated that item power was the determining factor, not item quality (i.e. high end). Someone who gets a purple item dropped (rather than from a open world box) on heroic should compare the item power (see previous link) vs a high-end item.



    I am pointing out that bugs are not exclusive to the Division franchise, and that they often take much more effort to fix than people think they should - the inventory wipe issue has been ongoing for a month.
    As far as I know at heroic difficulty or maybe even challenging, independent of item power, purple items are not supposed to drop. Which is why they specifically stated that the open world boxes do not scale to your world level.

    As for bugs in games I already know that. The point I made was that there have been several bugs in this game hence nobody can claim with confidence that the reason the op and others is experiencing undesirable loot drops is not related to a bug
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  4. #34
    Sircowdog1's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    Experience has taught me better.
    And experience has taught me that people are MUCH more likely to notice and post about the one time there's a hiccup in the loot than the hundred times it works correctly.

    As I said: Everyone has had weirdness with loot every now and then. But the vast majority of the time, especially over longer periods of time, RNG averages out to players getting loot according to the level they play on.

    I'll rephrase my earlier point: Attempting to portray the entire system as broken or stealth nerfed because an individual isn't getting the amount or quality they think they deserve is not the way. In fact it's extremely shakey ground to base an argument on.
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  5. #35
    CategoryTheory's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by SevenNVD Go to original post
    The big issue is that this isn't a sample size, this is only a few sessions of picking up loot. To prove anomalies in a stat based game with so many variables, you need before and after data of at least millions.
    No you do not. Statistical methods do not produce "proof"; from sample size you can calculate the probability that the distribution you found is the actual distribution, and you just need enough samples that you're happy with that probability. (Well, it's a little more complex than that, but I don't feel up to another wall of text tonight.) In this case, a sample size of many hundreds, it's almost certainly reasonable to make inferences about the actual distribution from it, though I doubt that anybody here is interested in the mathematical details.

    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    As far as I know at heroic difficulty or maybe even challenging, independent of item power, purple items are not supposed to drop.
    Really? Did the developers actually say that, or did some player just make that assumption and post it somewhere?

    The point I made was that there have been several bugs in this game hence nobody can claim with confidence that the reason the op and others is experiencing undesirable loot drops is not related to a bug
    "It frequently rains in June in Tokyo, therefore nobody can claim with confidence that a rainy day in Tokyo is not a day in June."

    Your argument ignores that there are other major factors involved in perception of frequency of loot drops, particularly confirmation bias.
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  6. #36
    Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
    No you do not. Statistical methods do not produce "proof"; from sample size you can calculate the probability that the distribution you found is the actual distribution, and you just need enough samples that you're happy with that probability. (Well, it's a little more complex than that, but I don't feel up to another wall of text tonight.) In this case, a sample size of many hundreds, it's almost certainly reasonable to make inferences about the actual distribution from it, though I doubt that anybody here is interested in the mathematical details.



    Really? Did the developers actually say that, or did some player just make that assumption and post it somewhere?



    "It frequently rains in June in Tokyo, therefore nobody can claim with confidence that a rainy day in Tokyo is not a day in June."

    Your argument ignores that there are other major factors involved in perception of frequency of loot drops, particularly confirmation bias.
    Yes they actually said that. Even if they didn't think how foolish your question is in light of the fact that of your own assertion that a sample size of hundreds is almost certainly reasonable to... 99.9% of heroic loot drops are high end but some player must made that assumption I guess. You right. 99.9% isn't reasonable enough to make inferences about the actual distribution. Because fanboys only see what they want to see.

    Anyone can claim with confidence that a rainy day in Tokyo is not a day in June if they have a calendar and know the date the rain was falling. However, seeing as we aren't privy to the coding of the Division 2, my statement stands. Try again
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  7. #37
    N3mB0t's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by Stardust.One Go to original post
    I say there are "dry periods" in this game, but there's no hidden agenda.
    short and sweet , my thoughts precisely , with over 2 k hours in game i can say i feel this all the time and find it natural ,has to be bad sometimes to be good in others or this would be veeery boring really fast.
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  8. #38
    dagrommit's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    Yes they actually said that.
    It may have been said elsewhere, but Nikki made no mention of high-end vs purple in his SOTG about improving loot quality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk5kg4s50F8

    Even if you are correct, the OP made no complaint about purple loot. Instead, they complained about the frequency of max rolls, and rainbow loot.

    As others have noted, it is entirely possible for someone to go from a streak of good luck to one of bad luck - hence the sample size discussion. I'll also point out that the law of diminishing returns may play a part here - i.e. it becomes more difficult to improve your rolls once you get closer to max.

    Because fanboys only see what they want to see.
    Stop embarassing yourself and stick to arguing your case instead of name calling.
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  9. #39
    SevenNVD's Avatar Volunteer Moderator
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    Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
    No you do not. Statistical methods do not produce "proof"; from sample size you can calculate the probability that the distribution you found is the actual distribution, and you just need enough samples that you're happy with that probability. (Well, it's a little more complex than that, but I don't feel up to another wall of text tonight.) In this case, a sample size of many hundreds, it's almost certainly reasonable to make inferences about the actual distribution from it, though I doubt that anybody here is interested in the mathematical details.

    Fair enough, my millions in data was a little exaggerated maybe, but we are not the once that need to provide proof. The one claiming that the system is altered by certain actions and has changed over time are the ones with the burden of proof, if they question the information the developers give them. And in that situation, I'm sure a few hundred loot drops can't compare to the big picture, right?
    I'm asking because we're talking about a RNG system here, and from what I remember the range will get more precise if you have more data, and with fewer data there is a lot more variables. If an exotic has a 3% drop chance, you can end up with 3 exotics after 100 missions, but you can also end up with 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 24, etc. After 100.000 missions you are probably much closer to that 3% outcome. No need to convince me with a wall of maths if you don't want to, by the way, I'll believe you when you say I'm incorrect.
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  10. #40
    Originally Posted by dagrommit Go to original post
    It may have been said elsewhere, but Nikki made no mention of high-end vs purple in his SOTG about rainbow rolls: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk5kg4s50F8

    Even if you are correct, the OP made no complaint about purple loot. Instead, they complained about the frequency of max rolls, and rainbow loot.

    As others have noted, it is entirely possible for someone to go from a streak of good luck to one of bad luck - hence the sample size discussion. I'll also point out that the law of diminishing returns may play a part here - i.e. it becomes more difficult to improve your rolls once you get closer to max.



    Stop embarassing yourself and stick to arguing your case instead of name calling.
    My point was quite clear. You cannot in one argument claim that a few hundred drops is statistically sufficient to extrapolate about the population and in that same argument ask a question about whether the fact that over 99% of the drops at heroic are high end and up was just stated by some random player. And I am supposed to take you seriously?

    As far as your other point, this was established in Div 1 quite early on. Then there is a patch in div 2 possibly around tu4 where they stated specifically at 500 gs your drops would guarantee 500 plus at heroic difficulty or challenging. Since purples maxed out at 480 or something you can do the math for yourself. Furthermore like I said just look at the loot you get on heroic. Guaranteed you barely ever see a purple if ever. Now it's a simple test after that. Drop your difficulty to hard and you will see purple falling off enemies. That cannot be coincidence
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