WWOW! That is an interesting! I never thought of it that way.... It does make sense though, if you consider the 'pavlov's dog' method of ring the bell but deliver less food each time. It also shows why people play the game, then just stop playing. See games are about psychology, they hook you in and keep you playing and paying...Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
Also another thing I suspect plays into their formula... How often have you played in the current week. I believe that a person that hasn't played much in the last couple of weeks would get better drops than a person that played 30 hours in the last week.
I detect sarcasm here, but you can never be sure with only text to go off.Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
Just to be safe: 15% is the cap for WD on gear. It literally doesn't go any higher.
I really don't think people was jumping on any sort of bandwagon, players are not stupid, they pick up on changes.Originally Posted by Sircowdog1 Go to original post
Can i prove it? No....neither can anyone else.
Players, and all other human beings, also incorrectly intuit statistical events, find patterns where there aren't any, and feel differently about things that are statistically exactly the same. We know this because we have many decades of careful research showing this.Originally Posted by Riflemania Go to original post
Yes, you or anybody else can prove this. If you don't know how, you should reconsider your perception of how much you really know about this.Can i prove it? No....neither can anyone else.
Some players are very smart. I agree with that wholeheartedly! Smarter than me in many cases. But A LOT are also 100% willing to be swept up with anything that reinforces their own belief. That's human nature, and not limited to gamers.Originally Posted by Riflemania Go to original post
You don't think that in a looter game where people are CONSTANTLY buttsore about not getting perfect gear handed to them every single fight....that if a handful of "data" gets released that reinforces the belief that those same people are getting "screwed"....that its NOT going to snowball?
Originally Posted by OldGamerGene Go to original post
The big issue is that this isn't a sample size, this is only a few sessions of picking up loot. To prove anomalies in a stat based game with so many variables, you need before and after data of at least millions. At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself the question of why a developer would change the entire loot dice to keep the player from not finding better drops, and if that's likely at all.
And to add my own anecdotal example:
I have recently started an experiment where I deleted all my stash and characters. With not even a full 24 hours on the character I already have a build capable of heroics, and a couple of nearly god-rolled items, including a Vector SMG perfect for my playstyle, as well as a classic M1A.
Basically everything I need to completely dominate the game, earned solo, from scratch, in under a day of game time.
Perhaps I'm just lucky. But it's the same explanation: Random is Random.
If you are replying to my post perhaps I was unclear. When a purple item drops in a heroic mission off an npc, once, that is cause for concern. When a high end item drops in heroic that the total stat rolls don't conform to the 60% or whatever they landed on as the minimum loot quality threshold for heroics, once, that is cause for concern.Originally Posted by dagrommit Go to original post
I am not talking about getting a string of bad drops that are just at the minimum threshold or a string of rainbow drops that in 2 days of testing fall outside the % rainbow rolls they set. I stated that in my post I am not trying to justify what the op is posting.
My issue is how quickly everyone jumps to the conclusion that rng is just rng and ignores the fact that there are legitimately bugs in the loot system. Hence you have seen screen grabs of players in heroics getting purple loot, I myself got a purple before from a lvl 4 cp (and my world is always set to heroic so it's not even like they could confuse the world level).
I didn't see the need to come here to post about it because loot is generally meaningless to me. I have every build anyone would need to clear any content in the game currently at 95% plus optimization without ever touching the optimization station. Had all that since gearing up for the release of raid 2. But the point is it should not happen and there are bugs in the loot system.
Hence every time I see someone posting here about their loot woes I will not rush in to post loot is random bro. Because for all I know this player is legitimately experiencing an abnormal unintended spike of poor quality drops. Maybe they are playing at heroic and being awarded challenging tier loot. I don't know and neither do any of you. But the devs are the ones responsible for looking into it. This is the point I am making.
I am not as concerned with the numbers of drops that were tracked and sample sizes, none of that affects my drops. But bugs, in the Division franchise are like hydrogen molecules in water, they form a core part of the makeup of the game. If you ever watched any of the you tuber games glitches videos, he coined a phrase 'because it's Division' and that is the reason why
I was posting about rainbow loot, not loot quality. No evidence was given for the distribution of stats.Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
As for "60%", people need to remember that doesn't refer to the minimum stat roll: https://forums.ubisoft.com/showthrea...rolls-(TU10-1)
The devs have previously stated that they checked the distribution curve of rolls in the live game. However, if someone wants to make a case for a continued problem they will need to provide actual data - e.g. quality of loot on challenging vs heroic over a large sample size. Getting other players to do the same would also be good. Posting unsupported claims about this is unlikely to garner any action at this point.Hence every time I see someone posting here about their loot woes I will not rush in to post loot is random bro. Because for all I know this player is legitimately experiencing an abnormal unintended spike of poor quality drops. Maybe they are playing at heroic and being awarded challenging tier loot. I don't know and neither do any of you. But the devs are the ones responsible for looking into it. This is the point I am making.
Welcome to software development: https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/out...un-to-roll-outI am not as concerned with the numbers of drops that were tracked and sample sizes, none of that affects my drops. But bugs, in the Division franchise are like hydrogen molecules in water, they form a core part of the makeup of the game.
How is the sample size too small? If the loot rules explicitly state that heroic enemies GUARANTEE at least high end quality and I provide 1 example out of a billion drops where I killed a boss and he dropped a purple the sample size becomes irrelevant, because that is irrefutable evidence that there is a bug in the loot system.Originally Posted by Sircowdog1 Go to original post
As I posted in a similar reply just now, how then can you be certain that this fellow, the OP isn't playing heroics and for whatever reason being awarded loot based on the rules that should apply to challenging? It may not be the case either I agree but I'm not willing to simply chalk his complaints up to rng and the bell curve.
Experience has taught me better. Like I pointed out before and it is really too long ago for me to recall the full details, but there was another time when players made similar complaints about loot. Then one of the devs came on and basically said it was an oversight whereby the curve they used based on the changes they made in a previous patch resulted in the chances to earn god rolls at higher difficulty being lower. Any logical person would look at that and recognize it makes no sense but it did happen right?