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  1. #21
    Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
    I've noticed this too, and within just a single title update. Back when I had a mask with only +1% weapon damage, I was frequently finding masks with more weapon damage than that. But as I found better pieces, I less frequently picked up masks with a better weapon damage stat. E.g., when I had +7% weapon damage, I was picking up masks with more than that a lot less frequently, and now that I have one with +15% weapon damage, I have never picked up a mask with better weapon damage.

    Clearly Massive has deliberately designed the game to reduce the chances of picking up better loot over time. I bet they have done this to deliberately frustrate players and make the game less fun the longer you play it.
    WWOW! That is an interesting! I never thought of it that way.... It does make sense though, if you consider the 'pavlov's dog' method of ring the bell but deliver less food each time. It also shows why people play the game, then just stop playing. See games are about psychology, they hook you in and keep you playing and paying...

    Also another thing I suspect plays into their formula... How often have you played in the current week. I believe that a person that hasn't played much in the last couple of weeks would get better drops than a person that played 30 hours in the last week.
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  2. #22
    Sircowdog1's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by CategoryTheory Go to original post
    I've noticed this too, and within just a single title update. Back when I had a mask with only +1% weapon damage, I was frequently finding masks with more weapon damage than that. But as I found better pieces, I less frequently picked up masks with a better weapon damage stat. E.g., when I had +7% weapon damage, I was picking up masks with more than that a lot less frequently, and now that I have one with +15% weapon damage, I have never picked up a mask with better weapon damage.

    Clearly Massive has deliberately designed the game to reduce the chances of picking up better loot over time. I bet they have done this to deliberately frustrate players and make the game less fun the longer you play it.
    I detect sarcasm here, but you can never be sure with only text to go off.

    Just to be safe: 15% is the cap for WD on gear. It literally doesn't go any higher.
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  3. #23
    Oatiecrumble's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by Sircowdog1 Go to original post
    Was that ever proven, or was it just a host of people jumping on the bandwagon after a new major patch? And btw, seems like from those posts this was right after TU10.
    I really don't think people was jumping on any sort of bandwagon, players are not stupid, they pick up on changes.

    Can i prove it? No....neither can anyone else.
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  4. #24
    CategoryTheory's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by Riflemania Go to original post
    ....players are not stupid, they pick up on changes.
    Players, and all other human beings, also incorrectly intuit statistical events, find patterns where there aren't any, and feel differently about things that are statistically exactly the same. We know this because we have many decades of careful research showing this.

    Can i prove it? No....neither can anyone else.
    Yes, you or anybody else can prove this. If you don't know how, you should reconsider your perception of how much you really know about this.
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  5. #25
    Sircowdog1's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by Riflemania Go to original post
    I really don't think people was jumping on any sort of bandwagon, players are not stupid, they pick up on changes.

    Can i prove it? No....neither can anyone else.
    Some players are very smart. I agree with that wholeheartedly! Smarter than me in many cases. But A LOT are also 100% willing to be swept up with anything that reinforces their own belief. That's human nature, and not limited to gamers.

    You don't think that in a looter game where people are CONSTANTLY buttsore about not getting perfect gear handed to them every single fight....that if a handful of "data" gets released that reinforces the belief that those same people are getting "screwed"....that its NOT going to snowball?
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  6. #26
    SevenNVD's Avatar Volunteer Moderator
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    Originally Posted by OldGamerGene Go to original post
    - 784 drops of main gear (does not count mods) 4/21-5/2 over 25+ hours of play.

    The big issue is that this isn't a sample size, this is only a few sessions of picking up loot. To prove anomalies in a stat based game with so many variables, you need before and after data of at least millions. At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself the question of why a developer would change the entire loot dice to keep the player from not finding better drops, and if that's likely at all.
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  7. #27
    Sircowdog1's Avatar Senior Member
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    And to add my own anecdotal example:

    I have recently started an experiment where I deleted all my stash and characters. With not even a full 24 hours on the character I already have a build capable of heroics, and a couple of nearly god-rolled items, including a Vector SMG perfect for my playstyle, as well as a classic M1A.

    Basically everything I need to completely dominate the game, earned solo, from scratch, in under a day of game time.

    Perhaps I'm just lucky. But it's the same explanation: Random is Random.
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  8. #28
    Originally Posted by dagrommit Go to original post
    Posting screen grabs of a couple of drops means little. Quoting approximate percentages over a small sample size are similarly meaningless.

    A couple of us actually kept count after TU11: https://forums.ubisoft.com/showthrea...nbow-loot-TU11

    TL;DR - rainbow rolls made up less than 15% of 700 items, so 20% does not seem excessive given a much smaller sample size (you're not getting 700 items over 10 Summit floors).
    If you are replying to my post perhaps I was unclear. When a purple item drops in a heroic mission off an npc, once, that is cause for concern. When a high end item drops in heroic that the total stat rolls don't conform to the 60% or whatever they landed on as the minimum loot quality threshold for heroics, once, that is cause for concern.

    I am not talking about getting a string of bad drops that are just at the minimum threshold or a string of rainbow drops that in 2 days of testing fall outside the % rainbow rolls they set. I stated that in my post I am not trying to justify what the op is posting.

    My issue is how quickly everyone jumps to the conclusion that rng is just rng and ignores the fact that there are legitimately bugs in the loot system. Hence you have seen screen grabs of players in heroics getting purple loot, I myself got a purple before from a lvl 4 cp (and my world is always set to heroic so it's not even like they could confuse the world level).

    I didn't see the need to come here to post about it because loot is generally meaningless to me. I have every build anyone would need to clear any content in the game currently at 95% plus optimization without ever touching the optimization station. Had all that since gearing up for the release of raid 2. But the point is it should not happen and there are bugs in the loot system.

    Hence every time I see someone posting here about their loot woes I will not rush in to post loot is random bro. Because for all I know this player is legitimately experiencing an abnormal unintended spike of poor quality drops. Maybe they are playing at heroic and being awarded challenging tier loot. I don't know and neither do any of you. But the devs are the ones responsible for looking into it. This is the point I am making.

    I am not as concerned with the numbers of drops that were tracked and sample sizes, none of that affects my drops. But bugs, in the Division franchise are like hydrogen molecules in water, they form a core part of the makeup of the game. If you ever watched any of the you tuber games glitches videos, he coined a phrase 'because it's Division' and that is the reason why
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  9. #29
    dagrommit's Avatar Senior Member
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    Originally Posted by qpMaverickqp Go to original post
    If you are replying to my post perhaps I was unclear. When a purple item drops in a heroic mission off an npc, once, that is cause for concern. When a high end item drops in heroic that the total stat rolls don't conform to the 60% or whatever they landed on as the minimum loot quality threshold for heroics, once, that is cause for concern.
    I was posting about rainbow loot, not loot quality. No evidence was given for the distribution of stats.

    As for "60%", people need to remember that doesn't refer to the minimum stat roll: https://forums.ubisoft.com/showthrea...rolls-(TU10-1)

    Hence every time I see someone posting here about their loot woes I will not rush in to post loot is random bro. Because for all I know this player is legitimately experiencing an abnormal unintended spike of poor quality drops. Maybe they are playing at heroic and being awarded challenging tier loot. I don't know and neither do any of you. But the devs are the ones responsible for looking into it. This is the point I am making.
    The devs have previously stated that they checked the distribution curve of rolls in the live game. However, if someone wants to make a case for a continued problem they will need to provide actual data - e.g. quality of loot on challenging vs heroic over a large sample size. Getting other players to do the same would also be good. Posting unsupported claims about this is unlikely to garner any action at this point.

    I am not as concerned with the numbers of drops that were tracked and sample sizes, none of that affects my drops. But bugs, in the Division franchise are like hydrogen molecules in water, they form a core part of the makeup of the game.
    Welcome to software development: https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/out...un-to-roll-out
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  10. #30
    Originally Posted by Sircowdog1 Go to original post
    Everyone has seen hiccups in the loot system. Purples from heroic or legendary. Exotics out of open world crates. etc.

    I understand your point. However, MY point is just what I said in my first reply: "You're getting rocked by the bell curve. Deal with it." RAndom is random. Just because a string of unlikely events results in periods of poor rolls does NOT mean that the system itself has somehow changed to make that more likely. And whatever expression of "Hey guys I feel like I've been getting screwed lately on drops" is 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999^905867 percent likely to be just fishing for confirmation bias.

    Dagrommit and others rightly pointed out that the sample size is too small to determine anything. And I've made the point on these forums REPEATEDLY that people over-focus on getting maximized loot. And while seeking the best loot is an integral part of the looter genre, seeking to rile up the community with posts suggesting or insinuating that the system has been changed is not the way.
    How is the sample size too small? If the loot rules explicitly state that heroic enemies GUARANTEE at least high end quality and I provide 1 example out of a billion drops where I killed a boss and he dropped a purple the sample size becomes irrelevant, because that is irrefutable evidence that there is a bug in the loot system.

    As I posted in a similar reply just now, how then can you be certain that this fellow, the OP isn't playing heroics and for whatever reason being awarded loot based on the rules that should apply to challenging? It may not be the case either I agree but I'm not willing to simply chalk his complaints up to rng and the bell curve.

    Experience has taught me better. Like I pointed out before and it is really too long ago for me to recall the full details, but there was another time when players made similar complaints about loot. Then one of the devs came on and basically said it was an oversight whereby the curve they used based on the changes they made in a previous patch resulted in the chances to earn god rolls at higher difficulty being lower. Any logical person would look at that and recognize it makes no sense but it did happen right?
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