While I agree with the overall theme of Warden being stronger than Raider I don't agree with your decision to nerf him over raider. I'll touch on your points:
1) It's disingenuous to compare Warden's fully charged SB to raider's mix up. You'd have to be comparing the whole mix up of SB versus the whole mix up of raider post stunning tap. By only focusing on the fully charged version of the SB you're purposely stacking the cards for warden's side to make it look clearly better. Further more you're completely leaving out warden's choices in this initial bullet. You do not always start an SB looking to hit a full charge or going for a full charge. This entire first bullet is just misrepresenting the situation and thus I cannot argue into it.
The point of warden being able to feint his bash when he starts moving is always an overstated upside. In a battle between two high skilled and evenly skilled players this is never a talking point because you almost never get to that point. Once your opponent has recognized that you prefer charging to see if the opponent miss dodges they will start attacking you in start up of your charge. Which warden can't feint to parry on reaction especially since the opponent could option select from neutral.
Yes Warden can catch early dodges with a bash, on read. Raider can also soft feint to either a GB or stunning tap again. Stunning tap itself having a varied timing depending on input. It's entirely possible to avoid his repeated soft feints. Just as it's entirely possible to dodge into unlock roll to avoid an early dodge punish against warden. You can debate on which one is harder to avoid.
Actually you can't zone option select his heavy/chained zone mix up because Raider gets HA 100ms into his chained heavies. Further more Raider has always been able to feint on a read to block 400ms neutrals and parry 500ms neutrals. You can't use avoid/counter interchangebly here as it again skews the argument. Further more Warden's SB games have both character specific and universal counters. Saying you can only dodge his mix up is entirely false and really hurts your credibility in the argument. As for the damage goes Warden typically nets double side lights for his mix ups, side heavy via GB if he read well. You rarely get 40 damage. Compared to Raider netting stunning taps 18 damage and a successful chained attack hitting between 58-68 damage. Or on the lower end with soft feint into GB netting 38 damage total. This doesn't consider the fact that his mix up effectively cuts all aggression against him due to the 20% set cap or potential OOS punishes of which raider does more damage with over Warden any day.
2) I see what you're attempting here but i'm going to scrap it entirely and work from the external perspective since that's what this section seems to mainly focus on. In 4's you're constantly blocking or dodging. Dodging more than blocking because block hitstuns can setup ganks. While Warden's SB from external can only be dealt with by dodging both raider and warden can essentially force a dodge from neutral anyway since they both have an unblockable from neutral. Raider's zone can be soft feinted into a GB. Meaning if he's ganking with someone else just like a warden would do they are essentially ganking the same way.
I'd argue that not being able to block warden's bash isn't a significant advantage to make it better over zone into soft feint for raider. Because baiting a parry out is incredibly strong for ganking punishes. And bashes give more revenge on average compared to practically anything else in the game. Using zone as a mix up is more costly stamina wise compared to constantly charging and feinting Warden's bash. But imho it's not a big enough of a difference to really say one situation is superior to another. Finally, you could argue that warden is slightly more threatening from neutral on the offensive side and i'd agree. But raider has dodge into GB as a defensive option. Meaning any AoE move you attempt to do when being ganked can be met with a stampede charge wasting potential revenge time post activation or a wall throw that nets Raider a heafty chunk of damage. More so if he's positioned with allies to also net a heavy with his.
3) Raider's soft feint always comes out at 400ms so i'm not sure on what you mean by "he has to GB late." Warden's GB has no better tracking compared to any other GB. GB's always track if the opponent inputted a dodge too early. And because early dodges is primarily how Warden catches people it seems like it's different when it's really not.
4) Both heros have comparable range to their mix ups. Raider's is slightly better if we only consider warden's uncharged bashes. (which are important to note because they're his primary tool for punishing people on side dodge.) Pretty much the rest of this part is already mentioned in prior parts so I don't need to respond to them again.
5)Strictly false. If you GB warden at all during dodge into Sb you're either catching him in dodge start up or SB start up. Raider is 100% immune to being GBed on his dodges wether he gets his timing wrong or not. And you can punish warden's side dodge into uncharged SB with a read by baiting it and GBing him on whiff. The only way you can punish a raider who's using side dodge to attempt to GB you is to feint and throw a light. But because raider can literally just not commit to attempting the GB you can't force that punish. So Raider is safe. Warden is not.
Conclusion: Warden is stronger offensively. Raider is stronger defensively. We play for honor, the game that doesn't give a flying heck about offense and massively rewards defense. Warden is the better hero overall but is kept in check with proper risk vs reward punishes. The only actual balance problem with Warden is back dodge into SB. Raider on the other hand gets Armor 100ms into his 40 damage heavies making any trade in the game in his favor barring a couple niche scenarios. His dodge into GB/CGB means any hero who relies on bash based offense is instantly a hard match up VS raider. ESPECIALLY since dodging bashes is easier to do on reaction thanks to the increase of I frames that happened awhile ago. And on top of that Raider boasts one of the best if not THE best stamina bullying to OOS punishes in the game.
No. Raider NEEDS to be adjusted.
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