Assuming true RNG and no weighting applied: The more exotics or named items you have, the smaller the chance of getting something you don't already have. This is made worse by adding new items to the pool, which dilutes it further. Same with apparel; the more you collect, the less chance you have of getting something you don't already have.
Unless they apply some weighting to new items? (Not sure if they do for exotics) But yeah, most results from Exotic caches go straight to the shredder.
I did notice I got that Belmory Armor named item from a named cache BEFORE I got the item from the Season Pass track, thought the new stuff wasn't added to the pool until after you got it from the track?


