rlmergeuser

03-06-2014, 05:04 PM

Does anyone know? The answer determines how many times you have to spin before you're guaranteed a blue prize and I would like to know http://forum.redlynx.com/forum/images/smilies/icon/biggrin.gif

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rlmergeuser

03-06-2014, 05:04 PM

Does anyone know? The answer determines how many times you have to spin before you're guaranteed a blue prize and I would like to know http://forum.redlynx.com/forum/images/smilies/icon/biggrin.gif

xitooner

03-06-2014, 06:30 PM

I wondered the same. . .if you want to you can grab one of the wheels and scroll it (before you pull the arm) to see just how many blues there are. I suspect you wont see any.....

I wondered what you did (as a programmer with testing knowledge, I am curious about how things work), so I did a simple test; we can only put 48 entries in the machine in a day right? Well, focussed heavily on it one day... got it up to about 24 (it only says 20+ on the counter once you pass 20). Then I scrolled one of the wheels, just to get a quick overview of how much blue I'd see. I saw none at all, and I scrolled past well over 1 hundred rows.

But. . .at the same time, if I get myself up to 15+ entries in the slot. . . . I've noticed that I pretty much always get all 4 by the end of the day. Statistically, that doesnt match my scrolling inspection results above. My (informal) opinion is that the entries you see going by are just pretty mind candy for your enjoyment. I believe what REALLY happens is that it simply starts weighting some random number in your favor the more entries you add . . .and when the random number falls in your favor, you win a prize on their very short list. The rest is smoke&mirrors.

I wondered what you did (as a programmer with testing knowledge, I am curious about how things work), so I did a simple test; we can only put 48 entries in the machine in a day right? Well, focussed heavily on it one day... got it up to about 24 (it only says 20+ on the counter once you pass 20). Then I scrolled one of the wheels, just to get a quick overview of how much blue I'd see. I saw none at all, and I scrolled past well over 1 hundred rows.

But. . .at the same time, if I get myself up to 15+ entries in the slot. . . . I've noticed that I pretty much always get all 4 by the end of the day. Statistically, that doesnt match my scrolling inspection results above. My (informal) opinion is that the entries you see going by are just pretty mind candy for your enjoyment. I believe what REALLY happens is that it simply starts weighting some random number in your favor the more entries you add . . .and when the random number falls in your favor, you win a prize on their very short list. The rest is smoke&mirrors.

xitooner

03-07-2014, 12:42 AM

Brain fart! I must have been checking on a column before the rewards came up, or something....

.....I checked again, and it seemed like there were roughly about 150 entries in a column.

If I have the math right (please check, I already screwed up once), the chances of matching blue in a single column by the time you reach:

15 attempts..around 50%

20 attempts..around 73%.

25 attempts..around 88%.

.....I checked again, and it seemed like there were roughly about 150 entries in a column.

If I have the math right (please check, I already screwed up once), the chances of matching blue in a single column by the time you reach:

15 attempts..around 50%

20 attempts..around 73%.

25 attempts..around 88%.

StegoIII

03-07-2014, 03:42 AM

Good to know! Thanks http://forum.redlynx.com/forum/images/smilies/icon/smile.gif

georgri

10-12-2014, 01:36 PM

I counted them by hand.

1 column - 5 entries

2 column - 25 entries

3 column - 70 entries

4 column - 100 entries

For 100 entries (4th column):

5 attempts: 14%

10 attempts: 43%

11 attempts: 50% (median)

15 attempts: 72%

20 attempts: 90%

25 attempts: 97%

30 attempts: 99.45%

31 attempts: 99.62%

- A guy in the other thread complained that he spent over 90 gems for getting an item from the slot machine. While it's rather unlikely (0.4% or 1 out of 250), it's quite possible.

For 70 entries (3rd column):

5 attempts: 20%

9 attempts: 49% (median)

10 attempts: 56%

15 attempts: 84%

20 attempts: 96%

For 25 entries (2nd column):

3 attempts: 22%

5 attempts: 48% (median)

10 attempts: 93%

15 attempts: 99.8%

For 5 entries (1st column):

1 attempt: 20%

2 attempts: 52% (median)

3 attempts: 81%

4 attempts: 96%

5 attempts: 100%

Raw data:

Python script used for generating data (you can play with it here: http://repl.it/1Nc ):

entries = [100, 70, 25, 5]

max_attempts = 25

for entry in entries:

print "For", entry, "entries:"

p = 100.0

for n in range(1, max_attempts + 1):

p *= 1 - n / entry

print n, "attempt(s):", 100.0 - p, "%"

if p == 0: break

print

Script output:

For 100 entries:

1 attempt(s): 1.0 %

2 attempt(s): 2.98 %

3 attempt(s): 5.8906 %

4 attempt(s): 9.654976 %

5 attempt(s): 14.1722272 %

6 attempt(s): 19.321893568 %

7 attempt(s): 24.9693610182 %

8 attempt(s): 30.9718121368 %

9 attempt(s): 37.1843490445 %

10 attempt(s): 43.46591414 %

11 attempt(s): 49.6846635846 %

12 attempt(s): 55.7225039545 %

13 attempt(s): 61.4785784404 %

14 attempt(s): 66.8715774587 %

15 attempt(s): 71.8408408399 %

16 attempt(s): 76.3463063055 %

17 attempt(s): 80.3674342336 %

18 attempt(s): 83.9012960715 %

19 attempt(s): 86.960049818 %

20 attempt(s): 89.5680398544 %

21 attempt(s): 91.7587514849 %

22 attempt(s): 93.5718261583 %

23 attempt(s): 95.0503061419 %

24 attempt(s): 96.2382326678 %

25 attempt(s): 97.1786745009 %

For 70 entries:

1 attempt(s): 1.42857142857 %

2 attempt(s): 4.24489795918 %

3 attempt(s): 8.34868804665 %

4 attempt(s): 13.5859058726 %

5 attempt(s): 19.7583411674 %

6 attempt(s): 26.6361976387 %

7 attempt(s): 33.9725778749 %

8 attempt(s): 41.5185689749 %

9 attempt(s): 49.0376101067 %

10 attempt(s): 56.31795152 %

11 attempt(s): 63.182273424 %

12 attempt(s): 69.4938836942 %

13 attempt(s): 75.1593052938 %

14 attempt(s): 80.1274442351 %

15 attempt(s): 84.3858490418 %

16 attempt(s): 87.9547978323 %

17 attempt(s): 90.8800612159 %

18 attempt(s): 93.2251883318 %

19 attempt(s): 95.0640657846 %

20 attempt(s): 96.4743327033 %

21 attempt(s): 97.5320328923 %

22 attempt(s): 98.3076796976 %

23 attempt(s): 98.8637277969 %

24 attempt(s): 99.253306838 %

25 attempt(s): 99.5199829673 %

For 25 entries:

1 attempt(s): 4.0 %

2 attempt(s): 11.68 %

3 attempt(s): 22.2784 %

4 attempt(s): 34.713856 %

5 attempt(s): 47.7710848 %

6 attempt(s): 60.306024448 %

7 attempt(s): 71.4203376026 %

8 attempt(s): 80.5658295697 %

9 attempt(s): 87.5621309246 %

10 attempt(s): 92.5372785548 %

11 attempt(s): 95.8208759907 %

12 attempt(s): 97.8268555152 %

13 attempt(s): 98.9568906473 %

14 attempt(s): 99.5410318848 %

15 attempt(s): 99.8164127539 %

16 attempt(s): 99.9339085914 %

17 attempt(s): 99.9788507493 %

18 attempt(s): 99.9940782098 %

19 attempt(s): 99.9985787703 %

20 attempt(s): 99.9997157541 %

21 attempt(s): 99.9999545207 %

22 attempt(s): 99.9999945425 %

23 attempt(s): 99.9999995634 %

24 attempt(s): 99.9999999825 %

25 attempt(s): 100.0 %

For 5 entries:

1 attempt(s): 20.0 %

2 attempt(s): 52.0 %

3 attempt(s): 80.8 %

4 attempt(s): 96.16 %

5 attempt(s): 100.0 %

1 column - 5 entries

2 column - 25 entries

3 column - 70 entries

4 column - 100 entries

For 100 entries (4th column):

5 attempts: 14%

10 attempts: 43%

11 attempts: 50% (median)

15 attempts: 72%

20 attempts: 90%

25 attempts: 97%

30 attempts: 99.45%

31 attempts: 99.62%

- A guy in the other thread complained that he spent over 90 gems for getting an item from the slot machine. While it's rather unlikely (0.4% or 1 out of 250), it's quite possible.

For 70 entries (3rd column):

5 attempts: 20%

9 attempts: 49% (median)

10 attempts: 56%

15 attempts: 84%

20 attempts: 96%

For 25 entries (2nd column):

3 attempts: 22%

5 attempts: 48% (median)

10 attempts: 93%

15 attempts: 99.8%

For 5 entries (1st column):

1 attempt: 20%

2 attempts: 52% (median)

3 attempts: 81%

4 attempts: 96%

5 attempts: 100%

Raw data:

Python script used for generating data (you can play with it here: http://repl.it/1Nc ):

entries = [100, 70, 25, 5]

max_attempts = 25

for entry in entries:

print "For", entry, "entries:"

p = 100.0

for n in range(1, max_attempts + 1):

p *= 1 - n / entry

print n, "attempt(s):", 100.0 - p, "%"

if p == 0: break

Script output:

For 100 entries:

1 attempt(s): 1.0 %

2 attempt(s): 2.98 %

3 attempt(s): 5.8906 %

4 attempt(s): 9.654976 %

5 attempt(s): 14.1722272 %

6 attempt(s): 19.321893568 %

7 attempt(s): 24.9693610182 %

8 attempt(s): 30.9718121368 %

9 attempt(s): 37.1843490445 %

10 attempt(s): 43.46591414 %

11 attempt(s): 49.6846635846 %

12 attempt(s): 55.7225039545 %

13 attempt(s): 61.4785784404 %

14 attempt(s): 66.8715774587 %

15 attempt(s): 71.8408408399 %

16 attempt(s): 76.3463063055 %

17 attempt(s): 80.3674342336 %

18 attempt(s): 83.9012960715 %

19 attempt(s): 86.960049818 %

20 attempt(s): 89.5680398544 %

21 attempt(s): 91.7587514849 %

22 attempt(s): 93.5718261583 %

23 attempt(s): 95.0503061419 %

24 attempt(s): 96.2382326678 %

25 attempt(s): 97.1786745009 %

For 70 entries:

1 attempt(s): 1.42857142857 %

2 attempt(s): 4.24489795918 %

3 attempt(s): 8.34868804665 %

4 attempt(s): 13.5859058726 %

5 attempt(s): 19.7583411674 %

6 attempt(s): 26.6361976387 %

7 attempt(s): 33.9725778749 %

8 attempt(s): 41.5185689749 %

9 attempt(s): 49.0376101067 %

10 attempt(s): 56.31795152 %

11 attempt(s): 63.182273424 %

12 attempt(s): 69.4938836942 %

13 attempt(s): 75.1593052938 %

14 attempt(s): 80.1274442351 %

15 attempt(s): 84.3858490418 %

16 attempt(s): 87.9547978323 %

17 attempt(s): 90.8800612159 %

18 attempt(s): 93.2251883318 %

19 attempt(s): 95.0640657846 %

20 attempt(s): 96.4743327033 %

21 attempt(s): 97.5320328923 %

22 attempt(s): 98.3076796976 %

23 attempt(s): 98.8637277969 %

24 attempt(s): 99.253306838 %

25 attempt(s): 99.5199829673 %

For 25 entries:

1 attempt(s): 4.0 %

2 attempt(s): 11.68 %

3 attempt(s): 22.2784 %

4 attempt(s): 34.713856 %

5 attempt(s): 47.7710848 %

6 attempt(s): 60.306024448 %

7 attempt(s): 71.4203376026 %

8 attempt(s): 80.5658295697 %

9 attempt(s): 87.5621309246 %

10 attempt(s): 92.5372785548 %

11 attempt(s): 95.8208759907 %

12 attempt(s): 97.8268555152 %

13 attempt(s): 98.9568906473 %

14 attempt(s): 99.5410318848 %

15 attempt(s): 99.8164127539 %

16 attempt(s): 99.9339085914 %

17 attempt(s): 99.9788507493 %

18 attempt(s): 99.9940782098 %

19 attempt(s): 99.9985787703 %

20 attempt(s): 99.9997157541 %

21 attempt(s): 99.9999545207 %

22 attempt(s): 99.9999945425 %

23 attempt(s): 99.9999995634 %

24 attempt(s): 99.9999999825 %

25 attempt(s): 100.0 %

For 5 entries:

1 attempt(s): 20.0 %

2 attempt(s): 52.0 %

3 attempt(s): 80.8 %

4 attempt(s): 96.16 %

5 attempt(s): 100.0 %

flooodi

10-14-2014, 06:32 AM

I wonder is my slot machine working... I have that "Toughen up The Mantis" paint there for like some 8days in a row.

And I spin at least 10 spins a day. But few days I were active and went to 15. Still didn't get the paint.

Count the odds for that...! I'd love to get that 1hour reset back.

I'm getting desperate about getting those still missing 2 maps (hilltop ghetto/fire oasis), because the mantis paint is in my way.

And I dont have any mission except ANBA anymore, so its getting dull to drive...

So I set a mission of my own... climb up to top50 in global, at the moment I was about +400.

Currently I'm 68th. :cool:

Hopefully new updates hit android soon to get something to do...

And I spin at least 10 spins a day. But few days I were active and went to 15. Still didn't get the paint.

Count the odds for that...! I'd love to get that 1hour reset back.

I'm getting desperate about getting those still missing 2 maps (hilltop ghetto/fire oasis), because the mantis paint is in my way.

And I dont have any mission except ANBA anymore, so its getting dull to drive...

So I set a mission of my own... climb up to top50 in global, at the moment I was about +400.

Currently I'm 68th. :cool:

Hopefully new updates hit android soon to get something to do...

georgri

10-14-2014, 10:18 AM

I wonder is my slot machine working... I have that "Toughen up The Mantis" paint there for like some 8days in a row.

And I spin at least 10 spins a day. But few days I were active and went to 15. Still didn't get the paint.

Count the odds for that...!

Well, Lotz loves to push you the same paintjob or peace of clothes instead of some map. It's a matter of fact rather then probability.. I wish I knew the algorithm of choosing prizes!

As of not winning 8 days in a row... I believe, you've been just very unlucky, bro. The scenario you described is about half percent likely.

And I spin at least 10 spins a day. But few days I were active and went to 15. Still didn't get the paint.

Count the odds for that...!

Well, Lotz loves to push you the same paintjob or peace of clothes instead of some map. It's a matter of fact rather then probability.. I wish I knew the algorithm of choosing prizes!

As of not winning 8 days in a row... I believe, you've been just very unlucky, bro. The scenario you described is about half percent likely.

flooodi

10-15-2014, 07:50 AM

It seems that I just needed to whine about my luck here, this morning my slot machine restarted and I got the Ghetto Hilltop on 3rd spin =)