View Full Version : Card distribution is STILL embarrasingly awful.

ArcaneAzmadi

09-29-2013, 12:19 AM

How bad is it? In 22 packs of Forgotten Wars (2 boxes and 2 packs from Swiss Tournaments) I've gotten 3 copies of Sahaar Hunter (rare), one of them a foil... and only a SINGLE copy of Dancing Dervish, Spinning Dervish, Enslaved Harpy, Minotaur Brute and Arcane Archer (common), staple cards I want to build the basics of my Academy deck on. (I also have only 1 copy of Air Trap and Shared Agony, but those don't bother me as much). I'm also having a hard time getting 4 copies of certain other commons I want, including Scholar, Crusader Watchman, Sahaar Marauder and Week of Training. Oh and in case you think that's just a problem with the number of commons vs the number of rares, I've already managed to pick up 5 copies of Gargoyle, Rotting Zombie, Al-Betyl Ghoul, Aura of Healing, Inexhaustible Mine, Ancestral Guidance, Garden of Ectasy and Outraging Vision, 6 copies of Fiery Death and Escalating Madness, 7 copies of Sayama Stalker and an infuriating eight copies of Road to Enlightenment. The uncommon distribution isn't much better- so many useful uncommons I don't have yet (Void-Tainted Djinn, Scattershot Marksman, Soothsayer, Eye of the Mana Storm, Sayama Warden, Sayama Dune Prowler) and I'm already up to 4 copies of Titan (not such a bad thing) and Cactus Thing (such a bad thing).

This has been going on for ages and it really HAS to stop. Don't say "it's just your luck" because CCGs use card distribution to try and minimise this, because it is a FLAW.

superburgers

09-29-2013, 02:39 AM

Yeah, anyone who says 'RNG' is missing the point. Other games are intentionally non-random to a degree to prevent this kind of thing.

My 6 copies of Reinforcements and 2 Soul Reavers (amongst others) agree with you.

DoctorDevil

09-29-2013, 03:14 AM

Tell me about it. I've got 940 cards (700+ cards from the basic set), and still no Ravagers (had to buy them via Altar)... I got 3 Garants Purge tho... I think they either tried to make their own random function (instead of using a built-in one), or it's done on purpose. There's no other reason for that to happen. And the FW addon didn't change a thing. Bought 15 basic set packs, and I still didn't get even one Ravager out of 'em.

Nahi0

09-29-2013, 03:58 AM

lol i bought the box and found 4 ravenger, u serious? it's not hard to get

Barbobot.rivers

09-29-2013, 04:53 AM

And this is where Alter of Wishes comes in to play. Now go make yourself some of those cards with the wildcards you got from the boxes.

Bond2King

09-29-2013, 05:05 AM

Can we not have this thread every week now that they've finally made a way to acquire single cards.

ArcaneAzmadi

09-29-2013, 06:31 AM

And this is where Alter of Wishes comes in to play. Now go make yourself some of those cards with the wildcards you got from the boxes.

Can we not have this thread every week now that they've finally made a way to acquire single cards.

Are you guys SERIOUSLY suggesting we waste Wildcards on COMMONS? (3 Wildcards for a single FW common, btw.)

No, we MUST have this thread every single blasted week because Ubi WILL NOT FIX THIS ETERNAL, GLARING, MASSIVE FLAW IN THE GAME!

EndlessRamble

09-29-2013, 08:26 AM

Are you guys SERIOUSLY suggesting we waste Wildcards on COMMONS? (3 Wildcards for a single FW common, btw.)

No, we MUST have this thread every single blasted week because Ubi WILL NOT FIX THIS ETERNAL, GLARING, MASSIVE FLAW IN THE GAME!

You say that other card games have card distribution which helps alleviate this problem but as far as I know all the popular card games are in fact random so do you have any examples that support this assertion?

For physical products such as Magic the Gathering you can influence your draws somewhat but only by buying entire boxes for hundreds of dollars to try and capitalize on their printing system. This is both incredibly expensive and does not really apply to digital products as well.

amoshias

09-29-2013, 06:13 PM

Endless - Magic has an incredibly elaborate system to cut and ship cards from their sheets. Yes, it's "random" from the point of view of any individual pack - but in the larger scale (boxes, and probably cases as well) their process is designed to minimize that type of thing. If you find 5x a specific rare in a box of Magic, chances are that it was an actual sorting error.

Then again, Magic sets are a lot bigger, as well... when there are only and handful of rares (and a bigger handful of epics!) in a set, duplicates are going to happen more frequently.

Gavr1l0

09-29-2013, 09:26 PM

That's just feature of rl printing and packaging process. Let random be random, i'd much rather have fair rng than tampered one.

ArcaneAzmadi

09-29-2013, 11:15 PM

That's just feature of rl printing and packaging process. Let random be random, i'd much rather have fair rng than tampered one.

...why...?

Seriously, why?

Why would you prefer a bad system over a good one?

Besides, I'm still not entirely convinced it IS random. Ever since I've started playing, the distribution has been SO awful that I've been convinced there's something wrong with it. The lowlight was when I got 4 copies of the same (useless) rare from a single HotV box (and an Emilio's pack I got from an achievement after opening it), taking my total copies of said rare up to eight.

CelestialSeraph

09-30-2013, 08:08 AM

This has also been bothering me since spending all my stockpiled wealth after the FW release. It really hard to draw a line were something is random bad luck or just a fluke of the system. I mainly got base set cards since I've been playing for 3 weeks. Getting a serious box and 3 additional packs got me 3 blood callers and 4 tsunami's. Math isn't my thing so I won't do the calculations on that but it does seem slightly off.

Gavr1l0

09-30-2013, 08:40 AM

...why...?

Seriously, why?

Why would you prefer a bad system over a good one?

Besides, I'm still not entirely convinced it IS random. Ever since I've started playing, the distribution has been SO awful that I've been convinced there's something wrong with it. The lowlight was when I got 4 copies of the same (useless) rare from a single HotV box (and an Emilio's pack I got from an achievement after opening it), taking my total copies of said rare up to eight.

This system works just fine for me. Sure, there's a small chance to get redundant multiples of some useless rare card (I have 3 premium and one regular gate to nowhere), but it works both ways, you might pull 3 wolf captains from 5 VR packs as well, who knows?

DoctorDevil

09-30-2013, 10:59 PM

lol i bought the box and found 4 ravenger, u serious? it's not hard to get

I've got over 1k cards now. Today got my FIRST Ravager. That makes 3 of 'em, counting those I've got from the altar... yes, I'm serious. I wish I wasn't tho.

JustinMSC

11-21-2013, 07:34 PM

It only doesn't work well because you can't convert duplicate cards into other specific cards. All you can do is convert duplicate cards into gold, then use the gold to try to randomly get the cards you want again. The "value" of your cards dilutes rapidly doing this in the current system (selling all the cards you get in a pack only gives you a small fraction of the pack's cost) and there is no other method to get what you want.

Other card games solved this issue by...

1. Making cards tradable (which I'd never recommend for this game anyway, as it would create a farming community and a card black market)

2. Allowing you to convert duplicate cards into specific cards (example: Hearthstone's crafting system)

3. Giving you a regular or repeatable task/quest/achievement to complete that rewards you with a selection (in this case, Wild Cards)

Any of these options would make players lives a lot easier, but also decrease the amount of time needed to collect.

But it's about finding the balance between making things easy enough that people keep playing, and making it hard enough that people with extra money would rather pay.

A daily quest that gave you 1-3 Wild Cards randomly wouldn't change the game economy much at all, and would alleviate this problem (and further encourage people to log in every single day, much like the daily reward system and LoL's win of the day system, which helps to generate a lot of traffic in the game and keep interest high). It would mean that even in the worst case, you'll still be able to make visible and steady progress towards that 4-set of oranges you need to complete your deck.

Vengyre

11-22-2013, 10:17 AM

That's just feature of rl printing and packaging process. Let random be random, i'd much rather have fair rng than tampered one.

+1

JeditOjanen8

11-27-2013, 01:41 AM

A daily quest that gave you 1-3 Wild Cards randomly wouldn't change the game economy much at all, and would alleviate this problem (and further encourage people to log in every single day, much like the daily reward system and LoL's win of the day system, which helps to generate a lot of traffic in the game and keep interest high). It would mean that even in the worst case, you'll still be able to make visible and steady progress towards that 4-set of oranges you need to complete your deck.

The daily quest syndrome has problems that daily rewards do not. If the quest is PVP-based then other players can make it harder for you to get it, but if you're playing the AI it takes away from your playing time. Daily rewards you get just for wanting to play every day.

A better suggestion would be to change the Infernal Deal to an additional award of Wild Cards when you sacrifice rare cards. If you got one WC for a blue or two for an orange or purple you would not be getting an excessive rate of return - it would typically require buying six packs to get a single base set orange, or close to 20 packs for an orange from the newest set.

Ector777

11-28-2013, 09:03 AM

I am sick and tired with this faulty randomness. When I've discovered it first time, I was even going to leave the game.

When you're buying many-many booosters, you naturally expect to get the cards more-or-less evenly distributed over the whole set. This is the "law of high numbers", if you know theory of probability, but it works only if the probability of drawing each rare is the same. Apparently, DoC has some intentionally faulty random mechanic to make people buy more and more boosters.

For instance, I had THREE Forked Lightnings in my last FW box. Not that the card is bad, I just want normal rare distribution at last!!!

And please, don't tell me about the Altar. Yes, Altar is good (I wouldn't play this game at all without it), but its presence doesn't mean that randomness can remain faulty.

Gavr1l0

11-28-2013, 11:54 AM

Have you seen one of graphs, depicting law of large numbers? It usually takes more than thousand trials, before mean result settles near expected value, IIRC. And below 100 trials it could be all kinds of crazy , like 0,3/0.7 for coin toss. Cracking couple of boxes is nowhere near sufficient number of trials. Since we have more than 30 possible outcomes in rare slot, it's llke complaining that coin is rigged because it was 8 tails/6 heads after 14 throws.

What we see here is great example of gambler's fallacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy)

Ector777

11-28-2013, 01:29 PM

Don't even try to argue like that. I've bought much more that one box of boosters :) And I always had "A" for theory of probability :)

If you roll d20 ten times and see triple 20, that's normal. If you roll d20 100 times and get ten 20, eight 19 and eight 18, without any 1s or 2s, that's faulty die. That exactly what I'm getting in DoC boosters: I may get 10 copies of one card, 9 copies of another, but not a single copy of other cards.

Gavr1l0

11-28-2013, 02:25 PM

Don't even try to argue like that. I've bought much more that one box of boosters :) And I always had "A" for theory of probability :)

If you roll d20 ten times and see triple 20, that's normal. If you roll d20 100 times and get ten 20, eight 19 and eight 18, without any 1s or 2s, that's faulty die. That exactly what I'm getting in DoC boosters: I may get 10 copies of one card, 9 copies of another, but not a single copy of other cards.

Yet you complain about rigged rng after getting 3 of the same rare in one box. Sure, everyone is an expert here.

Bubonlubrique

11-30-2013, 01:55 PM

If I may, we shouldn't be able to have twice the same epic when we buy a box. I got 2 Hikyu and 3 Hasafahs in one box... :(

sir_z

12-10-2013, 01:13 AM

If the odds of getting card A and card B are the same, then the odds of opening card A before opening card B are 50%. This only holds true, obviously if the result can’t be both A and B, so this math works for rares and epics, but not for commons/uncommons. We can safely ignore any pack that does not include card A or Card B for our calculations, because they simply don’t affect the outcome at all.

The odds of receiving 2 of card A before 1 of card B, is 25%, the odds of receiving 3 of card A before receiving card B is 12.5%, and so on, exactly like a coin flip. To be fair, though, we don’t care which card we get 2 of before we get the other, so we need to double these odds to be “the chance of receiving X A or B before receiving one of each. So if we pick out 2 specific rares or epics of the same set, 50% of players receive a duplicate before they have both cards, 25% of players receive three of the same rare before getting the other one, and 0.195% (~2 of every thousand players) receive 10 of one card before ever receiving the other card.

A quick look at my latest Jackpot Tourney results show there were 10,950 players in the Dec 7, 2013 Jackpot tournament, so I think it’s safe to assume that there are at least 10,000 active players in MMDOC. Each player has a 99.8046875% chance to open at least one copy of A and one copy of B before amassing 10 of either card. Obviously cards bought with the altar of wishes don’t count.

Because each person’s cards are independent of any other person’s cards, we can calculate the odds of some player opening 10 of one card before opening a single copy of the other by taking .998046875^N power, where N is the number of players.

If we have 10 players, the odds of this happening to one of the players is around 2%

With 100 players, the odds are about 17.75% that this happens to some player

With 1000 players, the odds are about 85.85% that this happens to someone

With 10,000 players, the odds of at least one player opening 10 of one card before opening 1 of the other become ~99.9999993%. It is almost mathematically certain that some player somewhere will open 10 Atropos before they ever see a single Dark Assassin.

And here we’re just looking at 2 specific cards.

The first base set contains 45 rares and 14 epics. If we look at each iteration of 2 cards of the same rarity, there are 1980 combinations of two rares and 182 combinations of two epics.

That means that if you open up a brand new account, and buy nothing but base set packs until you have at least one of each epic, there is about a 30% chance you will have 10 of at least one epic (.998046875^182), and if you buy packs until you have one of each rare, there is a 97.91% chance you will have 10 of at least one rare(.998046875^1980). (for me it was 11 Market of Wonders before my first Armageddon, which I still don't have except via wildcards).

tldr, math shows that the distribution you're complaining of is what is to be expected with a true random distribution.

PortugueseHero

12-10-2013, 06:56 PM

So, I've bought 46 FW packs up until now, to try and buff my Ishuma deck and wanted to make a mill deck.

As of now, I have 2 Sayama Stalkers, 1 Sayama Dune Prowler, and 0 Void Tainted Rituals.

I did get 1 Void Shade, and 2 Hakeem (from consecutive boosters that had exactly the same cards, on the same box)

I do have 12 Dancing Dervish and 6 Sahaar Mummy for example.

So I need about 200 boosters before I can expect 4-of Sayama Dune Prowler?

(Also have 0 Inheritance for combo decks, opened 20+ Void Rising boosters, which is the other competitive archtype where I have most cards)

Dipl0mate

12-11-2013, 11:29 AM

I actually think that there is an issue about how they randomize this too. I would not be surprise if their system to avoid to get 2 times the same card in the same pack made the whole thing not as random as it should be. If extension is a list of cards, and each card of the extension has an index in the list, making it impossible to get 2 times the same card in the same pack is probably about removing indexes. This plus the 3 uncommon, 1 rare, "maybe" one premium it could get messy if not done the right way. I hope the pack generation is done localy, and there could be some security feature to be sure people dont hack the system and get what they want. Well, I pretty much see how this problem can be dealt with and it would be pretty easy to make this "looking easy problem" into an unmaintainable piece of software.

yyderf

12-13-2013, 01:43 PM

I have 4 (!) arcane intuition after yesterday...and still only one void shade

L0rnCyador

12-14-2013, 11:25 AM

I have 4 (!) arcane intuition after yesterday...and still only one void shade

I'm just like you. Only 1 Void Shade and 2 foil Arcane Intuition. XD

disblader

12-16-2013, 04:22 PM

Don't even try to argue like that. I've bought much more that one box of boosters :) And I always had "A" for theory of probability :)

If you roll d20 ten times and see triple 20, that's normal. If you roll d20 100 times and get ten 20, eight 19 and eight 18, without any 1s or 2s, that's faulty die. That exactly what I'm getting in DoC boosters: I may get 10 copies of one card, 9 copies of another, but not a single copy of other cards.

Sigh...

Before you go waving your "'A' for theory of probability" flag, give it a little more thought.

You said you got 3 forked lightnings in your last FW box, which, you exclaimed, is wrong.

You got 30 rare cards from the box, as every booster contains 3 (if I remember correct). That is enough cards to have a single copy of every rare card in the set. In order for the "law of high numbers" to work, your test samples must be much higher than the number of possible outcomes from the test. Much higher. Say for a coin-flip your distribution starts approaching normal in 100 tries. That is 100 tries for 2 possible choices. In FW there are 30 rare cards. That's 15 times the amount of possible outcomes from the coin-flip. And the increase in sample size is not linear - that means that even after 1500 tests (i.e. getting 1500 rare cards) you will not have reliable results - your test sample will have to be much higher than that to see whether the distribution of results is even or not for such a large outcome variety.

Saying that random is bad and that it shouldn't be as random is fine. Saying, on the other hand, that the randomness is broken implies that you made many, many, many tests. I'm talking about thousands of boosters, as when we're no longer talking about rare cards, the test sample size must be much much greater even than that for the 30 possibilities.

So unless you bought at least thousand boosters for that single expansion and then you see that you have significantly more cards of one type than those of the other, you cannot back your "the randomness is broken" statement.

mrBlaines

12-20-2013, 03:03 PM

You got 30 rare cards from the box, as every booster contains 3 (if I remember correct).

woot?

u mad?

NightEnder

12-22-2013, 04:39 AM

I bought 3 boxes of FT and I haven't got a single piece of Hall of Nightmare. I think there is serious misdistribution here. Of the packs I have opened I have gotten 3 Gate to Nowhere and 4 Unmei-kami

L0rnCyador

12-25-2013, 05:02 PM

Got 2 Nyorai Sairensa in 2 successive Void Rising Packs. XD

Blitz556

12-25-2013, 06:56 PM

I got two Noboru in two successive HotV packs (I only got 2 different HotV heroes so far). Later I got 3 Nur, Spellweaver within 5 successive FT packs (I only got 3 different FT unique creatures so far).

I think I sniffed a little after the third Nur...

disblader

01-02-2014, 10:13 AM

woot?

u mad?

I mad.

I was writing from work, so I couldn't remember the exact contents of a booster pack. Whatever the actual number is, you can probably do the maths yourself. If you get 1 per booster (which might be it, I'm at work again so I can't tell) then what I said applies even further, since getting less cards would mean that you need even more boosters to make reliable statistical evidence of a fault. If you get more than 3 then you would need less boosters, but still a very high number.

I bought 3 boxes of FT and I haven't got a single piece of Hall of Nightmare. I think there is serious misdistribution here. Of the packs I have opened I have gotten 3 Gate to Nowhere and 4 Unmei-kami

Read my previous post in this thread, you might get some insight.

snowace1995

01-02-2014, 01:12 PM

ya it suck -_-