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Nevofix
08-20-2013, 03:27 PM
What is the exact chance to get an Emilio's pack?

silentbobus
08-21-2013, 01:57 AM
It should be 1 in 6 if you finish the tournament, but in practice it works out to be even less than that. I've only gotten 2 Emilio packs ever and I've been eligible for dozens of them.

Morkje
09-10-2013, 06:14 AM
It should be 1 i 6. The top 2 win HotV pack and can't win the Emillio's pack.
If all other 6 players play out all 3 rounds, it becomes 1 in 6.

However in the swisses I play 1 or 2 people on average quit before the last round, so in practice the chance is higher.
Silentbobus is just an unlucky guy, but I don't think that shouldn influence the simple math that is needed here.

Or it might be indication that chance of getting emillio is tied to general whine content on forum posts.....

Kavenos
09-30-2013, 09:53 PM
1 out of 6, but often one or two players will quit after the first round.

I'd say 20% on average!

The.Eggman
10-13-2013, 11:18 AM
I would say around 25%.
SIlentbobus is very unlucky. I've kept records and i've gotten 8 emilio packs out of 14 times I was eligible, so i think i got extremely lucky (got 4 emilios the first 5 times....)
Overall there is always at least 1 guy that quits after 1st game, and often 2 people dont go till 3rd round so it becomes close to 25%
It's one of the reasons i started playing swiss very early even at low elo :)