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View Full Version : Japanese J7W2 Shinden Kai and Ki-201 Karyu: What if?



XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 02:41 AM
These jet aircraft were planned for production. The Karyu, a smaller version of the ME 262, was ready for production at wars end. Unlike with Germany's jet fighters many believe if Japan had time to produce these the outcome would have been significantly different.

Its still just speculation, but if they had functioned as planned and were operational it would have been very difficult for any U.S. bombers to effectively enter Japanese airspace. These jets would have reached B-29 altitude with ease.

Japan was also working on its own weapons of mass destruction (bio warfare). If they could have sustained for another 6 months or so, their plans for a super long range bomber may have come to production. They had the U.S. west coast in mind.

Contrary to what many have believed, Japan was well advanced in knowledge and potential... They needed time. I'm only stating what many others have discussed as well as watching documentaries. So, so many events and outcomes in WWII could have turned on a dime.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 02:41 AM
These jet aircraft were planned for production. The Karyu, a smaller version of the ME 262, was ready for production at wars end. Unlike with Germany's jet fighters many believe if Japan had time to produce these the outcome would have been significantly different.

Its still just speculation, but if they had functioned as planned and were operational it would have been very difficult for any U.S. bombers to effectively enter Japanese airspace. These jets would have reached B-29 altitude with ease.

Japan was also working on its own weapons of mass destruction (bio warfare). If they could have sustained for another 6 months or so, their plans for a super long range bomber may have come to production. They had the U.S. west coast in mind.

Contrary to what many have believed, Japan was well advanced in knowledge and potential... They needed time. I'm only stating what many others have discussed as well as watching documentaries. So, so many events and outcomes in WWII could have turned on a dime.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 03:01 AM
What if:

Assuming the they could have gotten into production and into service in enough numbers to be a threat, they could have been countered with the P-51H and P-80A.

What if there had been one, two or ten more atomic bombs?

The threat of bio weapons in balloons is scarier, IMO. Unless you see the ballons, how do they get intercepted.? I suppose radar could pick them up.

One thing is sure, had the war lasted longer, it would have been MUCH uglier.

Regards,

SkyChimp

http://members.cox.net/rowlandparks/jug_sig.jpg

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 03:06 AM
Here is another what if:

What if in 1944 or 1945 the Japanese succeeded in lauching strike aircraft from submarines and actually blew the locks on the Panama Canal?

What if in 1941 Japan had not bombed Pearl Harbor, and instead sent a large fleet and land force to the Suez region and launched a campaign to seize middle-east oil fields?

Regards,

SkyChimp

http://members.cox.net/rowlandparks/jug_sig.jpg

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 03:56 AM
Chimp, my main focus is these 2 aircraft and how effective they would have been with regard to the U.S airforce at that time, that's it. If they had made it to production, unlike Germany, the outcome could have been very different. Apparently your saying this forum has no place for "what if" discussion. Or maybe just certain kinds. Sometimes I enjoy it. If I can keep a perspective, it doesn't insult my intelligence.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 04:48 AM
arcadeace wrote:
- These jet aircraft were planned for production. The
- Karyu, a smaller version of the ME 262, was ready
- for production at wars end. Unlike with Germany's
- jet fighters many believe if Japan had time to
- produce these the outcome would have been
- significantly different.
-
Well, if they had been produced & if their had been trained pilots to fly them, then like m,ost of the airwar it becomes a matter of attrition.
- Its still just speculation, but if they had
- functioned as planned and were operational it would
- have been very difficult for any U.S. bombers to
- effectively enter Japanese airspace. These jets
- would have reached B-29 altitude with ease.

If the Japanese could have countered the B-29s tehn they still have to take on the US Navy including carrier aircraft & fighter bombers. What if the US then started using fighter Bombers to start fires with incindiary bombs ?
-
- Japan was also working on its own weapons of mass
- destruction (bio warfare). If they could have
- sustained for another 6 months or so, their plans
- for a super long range bomber may have come to
- production. They had the U.S. west coast in mind.

Unescorted bombers flying across the Pacific ? IIRC the specifications for the P38 & P-47 were created with the thought that they would be high altitude interceptors.
Would 've been a one way mission for the Japanese pilots.

-
- Contrary to what many have believed, Japan was well
- advanced in knowledge and potential... They needed
- time.

No time was not on their side as the US could out manufacture them, & no air assault could have destroyed US industry.


I'm only stating what many others have
- discussed as well as watching documentaries. So, so
- many events and outcomes in WWII could have turned
- on a dime.

Have you ever read Why the Allies Won

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/039331619X/103-9456007-7730242?v=glance
Good read.

The turning points where history could have been changed were at Midway
(did the men of the torpedo bomber squadron know what they had accompished through their sacrifice ?)

Moscow & later Stalingrad.

Oh but what if the allies hadn't broken the codes used by the Germans & Japanese ??? So many victories would have been lost.

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-
-
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XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 05:36 AM
arcadeace wrote:
- These jet aircraft were planned for production. The
- Karyu, a smaller version of the ME 262, was ready
- for production at wars end. Unlike with Germany's
- jet fighters many believe if Japan had time to
- produce these the outcome would have been
- significantly different.
-
-
-
-
-
-

Then the kamakazi pilots would of had a modern day missle, instead of a Prop driven coffin.

And it would of made no difference consider what happened with the ME262.

The question you should ask yourself is this what if Hitler never attacked russia. What would of happened then?

What if USA a russia took 6 months more to defeat Germans?

Those are more reasonable questions, considering germany was on its way to making the big one.

<img SRC=http://www.metrocast.net/~moffre/FAFSIG.jpg>

Message Edited on 10/29/0304:37AM by malkuth

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 05:38 AM
Saburo, there was a recent documentary on our History Channel about Japanese "super weapons". About a month ago they did one on Germany's. Its all very fascinating to me.

I don't claim to be overly learned , and I made no pretense. I agree with you about the U.S. aircraft carriers. In brief, with the scenario presented, by preventing B-29s it would have prevented the only 2 a-bombs at that time from being delivered. From there the what-if scenario opened up.

As the documentary described: the planned long range bomber could have reached the U.S. west coast and back, just barely. This is from the knowledge they had and the specifics they gave. Also, this bomber could fly at an altitude and speed making it very difficult for the current U.S. fighters.

I agree the turning points could have been made at Midway and Stalingrad. Those are two of the most prominent episodes. There are a number of critical events which could have changed the course of the war. Breaking the codes was a huge breakthrough!

I enjoy documentaries on miscalculations, thick-headed judgments, super weapon possibilities, pure luck... etc.. Much of it can enhance my capacity for greater meaning with the overall picture. I'm comfortable with limits I'm able to establish to make my own judgment. There are plenty of subjects which probably should not be posted in our forum. WWII super weapons and "what if" scenarios is not one of them.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 05:55 AM
those designs were too late

just as the 262 was too late to save germany

Japan needed to not get pushed back at Midway

even then they had a incredible fight on their hands

america would never have surrendered

to keep america off from attacking , Japan would have had to conquer it as well

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 06:19 AM
You guys are all right. And like SC said to put it bluntly..."it would have been much uglier". Thankfully it ended when it did, if we had to invade Japan instead of nuke it...well I prolly wouldn't be here today along with many others.
As for Pearl Harbor, really, all Japan had to do was invade. The harbor still was used as a staging point for much of the war, it was just the fleet itself stationed there that suffered the most carnage. The Japanese were unable to sink the Nevada? (someonone correct me if I'm wrong) in the channel and block it it ran aground instead. That would have forced the U.S. to use bases in Alaska and Cali for the Pacific Fleet making the offensive on Japan much more complicated.

And chyeahhh, as someone else said if Germany never invaded the USSR. That would have been the end of GB. RAF or no RAF the German high command would have had an extra 6 million soldiers ( for use in the invasion of Russia) at its disposal for an invasion. No Air force or Navy could possibly stop that.

Little known fact: At the start of the Battle of Britain the Vermacht had already constructed landing craft for an invasion on the British SW shoreline similiar to those used on DDAY.

If Germany never invaded Russia and Japan invaded Pearl as well as Panama and/or the Suez region...we'll I'd rather not think about what would happen!

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 06:30 AM
Yeah the designs were too late.

You bet the 262 was too late to save Germany...er, that's what I implied.

Yes, the fight would have been incredible indeed.

America, God bless us. Absolutely no surrender.

Japan would have had to conquer America? You're right. Of course your right...I just didn't think of it.

Great "what if" insight Badsight.

.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 06:39 AM
darkhorizon11 wrote:
- And chyeahhh, as someone else said if Germany never
- invaded the USSR. That would have been the end of
- GB. RAF or no RAF the German high command would have
- had an extra 6 million soldiers ( for use in the
- invasion of Russia) at its disposal for an invasion.
- No Air force or Navy could possibly stop that.

Heheh, that made me smile.

its a bit of a paradox really, the whole of the German war effort was ultimately geared towards the invasion of the Soviet Union (this was the aim of the C in C, that is without doubt). If it had not been for the desire (Hilter's) to invade the USSR, WW2 would not have happenend as it did.

"As weaponry, both were good, but in far different ways from each other. In a nutshell, I describe it this way: if the FW 190 was a sabre, the 109 was a florett, or foil, like that used in the precision art of fencing." - Gunther Rall

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 06:51 AM
One of the little mentioned problems Japan had was its lack of maintaining it's equipment. Many planes that were possibly on equal fooring including the Toni were languishing on the ground due to maintenance problems, and later had problems with lack of pilots and planes and facilities at forward bases.

Japan's problems would not have solved with wonder weapons. They needed to change their whole organization, (including pilot training, mass production, maintenance, and infrastructure) as early as 1940 to be able to take advantage of weapons in the later years in oder to to make the US pay a bigger cost.

Even then the final outcome was really never in doubt.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 07:33 AM
arcadeace,

"The Karyu, a smaller version of the ME 262, was ready for production at wars end."

The big problem with the "what-if" on the TV show is real life. In real life neither of these planes was anywhere near being ready for production. The Ki-201 never even flew & the one of the two J8N1 prototype crashed on its second flight while the second one never flew.

The Germans did not give the Japanese a working model of the 262 till 1944. By early 1945 the Ki-201 was yet to make its first flight and the P-80 which would out perform it was is series production.

Nakajima started work on the Ki 201 Fire Dragon with out official sanction in late 1944, so work progressed slowly. The first flight was to be around December 1945, but Japan surrendered well be for that date, so the only prototype was never finished and it's fate is not known.

They did build and fly a smaller derivative, the Nakajima J8N1 Kikka - Orange Blossom as an attack aircraft for the Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN). The Kikka looked enough like an Me-262 to be mistaken for it, though its rear fuselage was distinctively different, not tapering towards the tail, and its empty weight was about half that of the Me-262. It was under powered and slow for a jet 420 mph.

The first was rolled out on 25 June 1945, and made its first flight on 7 August 1945, the day before the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. This aircraft flew for a second time on 11 August 1945, but was lost in a flight accident. The second prototype was completed but never flown, and taken to the US by the Americans after the war.

Even if there was no A-bomb the US had the P-80 in volume production starting in February of 1945 almost a year before the Ki 201 was to make its first flight. By the summer of 1945, approximately 30 P-80As were sent aboard an aircraft carrier to the Philippines in preparation for the final assault on Japan. The planes were to be issued to the 414th Fighter Group, based at Florida Blanca.

The planes had been sent without their tip tanks and their aircraft batteries, so they sat aboard the aircraft carrier for 30 days waiting for this equipment. By the time that the batteries and wingtip tanks were delivered, the war in the Pacific had ended, so the P-80 never got a chance to enter combat in the war against Japan.

Zeke



Message Edited on 10/29/0306:47AM by reisen52

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 07:44 AM
arcadeace wrote:
- Great "what if" insight Badsight.

there intention was to conquer the pacific & Sth East Asia

it was a ambition of feudal japan for a loooong time to conquer asia

but with the way the world was in the 40s america would not have stopped fighting untill it was conquered itself ... P

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 08:56 AM
Nice post reisen...seriously. My post was complete speculation, nothing serious. I enjoyed the History Channel's presentation - that's it. Nobody else wanted fun.

In this forum many need something to get off on because they don't have it in life. Even if no offense is intended it means opportunity for all the joes needing a reason. Whether they are 4,000 post vets or newbies, its all the same motivation.

Still, filtering through the anger there a number of good points in this thread. The scenerio the History Channel laid out really was a "what if". It was based on the fantasy premise by the end of the war these 2 jets were ready to go in numbers.

The P-80s deplyment is interesting. I thought they were only ready for service in the latter 40s. Thanks for your time.




Message Edited on 10/29/0307:59AM by arcadeace

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 09:28 AM
Those super weapons were maybe good as morale booster or whatelse, but definetly they weren't able to turn the war's favor from one side to the other. Sure the Me262 or Kikka outflew anything in the air, but either Japan and Germany were completely exhausted by summer 1944. Exhausted of war, the loss of hardware, men, sources and money. Take a look at the infrastructure of both nations. Surprisingly both defeated the attackers very long, but the end was is sight sooner or later.

With those shortcomings you can stop an Allied offensive in the best for a short time, but definetly you can't turn the end of the war to your favor.

If anyone at my Funeral has a long face, I'll never speak to him again.
Stan Laurel



EJGr.Ost Kimura

http://www.jagdgruppe-ost.de/image/ejgrost.gif

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 09:42 AM
I don't think those designs were too late. Actually they wouldn't have changed the course of the war much at all.

Japan had very vew natural ressources, and I don't know how it'd get the ressources and the fuel to produce and then use an efficient defense for long.

Nic

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 09:52 AM
I know Kimura...everything you've said is right. My post was just pretend. From now on when I post a "what if" scenario I'll make sure to only ask those who love fairy tales. Although maybe I should rephrase that, I don't want some no-lifers here getting the wrong idea.

It seems the Japanese, to a man (and many women) would have fought to their death defending their home land if the atomic bomb had not been dropped. In so far as continuing any offensive against America...they were beaten - hands down. They knew it and they did not want it to continue.

I appreciate your response...

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 12:35 PM
What if this, what if that - nagnagnag - whatever ... A-Bomb! END OF STORY!
... but - what if the A-Bomb wasn't developed? ;-))

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 12:53 PM
The Mitsubishi Reppu would be a better choice. Two protos flew just before the end of the war and it's a damn pretty plane!

Cheers,

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 05:48 PM
The Reppu would have been a good choice for the 'what if' because it was closer to production then the jets.

About the best planes they got into the war with over 400 units of each produced were N1K2-J Shiden-Kai(GEORGE) & J2M3-33 Raiden (JACK)

The best series production plane was the Nakajima Ki.84-Ia Hayate-Kai (FRANK)

Kai="modified" & some of the Kai versions were powered by the 2,000 hp Ha-45 Model 25. They carried two cowl-mounted 12.7mm guns and two wing-mounted 20 mm cannons.

The FRANK fought the battle for Okinawa, serving with the 101st, 102nd, and 103rd Hiko Sentais. Two new Sentais, the 111th and the 200th were activated with Hayates.

The Hayates were used for long-range penetration missions, fighter sweeps, strafing, interception and dive-bombing missions with considerable success. At medium altitudes, the FRANK was so fast that it was essentially immune from interception.

The Ki-84 proved faster than the P-51D Mustang and the P-47D Thunderbolt at all but the highest altitudes.

Zeke

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 06:02 PM
Don't forget that much of the damage caused by B-29 raids resulted from night operations. Even if the Japanese had been able to deploy jet fighters they would have been of little use against a night offensive.

Regards,

RocketDog.

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 10:05 PM
arcadeace wrote:

i saw a book once that would have been right up your alley. It emphasized the role slip ups & what not played in horrible events.One case I read was British pilots ordered to strafe one of their own boats flyiing the flag shortly after D-Day. Due to mechanical probs they had to remain in a patrol area one day longer than lanned, but this info wasn't passed on to all the parties who needed it & command became confvinced that their boat was a German trying to pull something off.
gotta go now !
- I enjoy documentaries on miscalculations,
- thick-headed judgments, super weapon possibilities,
- pure luck... etc.. Much of it can enhance my
- capacity for greater meaning with the overall
- picture. I'm comfortable with limits I'm able to
- establish to make my own judgment. There are plenty
- of subjects which probably should not be posted in
- our forum. WWII super weapons and "what if"
- scenarios is not one of them.
-
-
-
-

XyZspineZyX
10-29-2003, 10:29 PM
Was the Me262 too late?

By Galland's account, the jet fighter program was needlessly delayed by adding bomb-carrying requirements, and thus squandering the opportunity to deploy it in significant enough numbers to possibibly discourage the Allied daylight bombing offensive.

Not that any of this would have mattered in the end, but that was his contention.