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View Full Version : Food for thought - aircrew survival rates



XyZspineZyX
10-10-2003, 09:11 PM
Percentage chances of survival for aircrew, RAF, 1942
<table border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" >
<tr>
<td>Aircraft type</td>
<td>one tour</td>
<td>two tours</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Heavy & Medium Bombers</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>19.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Light Bombers</td>
<td>25.5</td>
<td>6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Day Fighter</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>18.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Night Fighter</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long Range Bomber</td>
<td>59.5</td>
<td>29.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Torpedo Bomber</td>
<td>17.5</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fighter Recconaisance</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bomber Reconnaisance</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>17.5</td>
</tr>
</table>


The figures for torpedo bombers made me go a bit quiet.

XyZspineZyX
10-10-2003, 09:11 PM
Percentage chances of survival for aircrew, RAF, 1942
<table border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" >
<tr>
<td>Aircraft type</td>
<td>one tour</td>
<td>two tours</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Heavy & Medium Bombers</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>19.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Light Bombers</td>
<td>25.5</td>
<td>6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Day Fighter</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>18.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Night Fighter</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long Range Bomber</td>
<td>59.5</td>
<td>29.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Torpedo Bomber</td>
<td>17.5</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fighter Recconaisance</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bomber Reconnaisance</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>17.5</td>
</tr>
</table>


The figures for torpedo bombers made me go a bit quiet.

XyZspineZyX
10-10-2003, 09:13 PM
Yup.. war can be pretty f*cking stupid eh?

-Thanks to Freddie; i'm a sexual spastic.

XyZspineZyX
10-10-2003, 10:07 PM
statistics show though that if you survive your first 10 missions then your surviving the war chance goes up 80%

I always knew I was going to get shot, I just never imagined it would happen at that particular moment...

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 01:08 AM
Good point. I'm currently reading 'The Roal Flying Corps in France' (Ralph Barker - very good - recommended) and this point comes through very strongly.

This would be mainly true of fighters, rahter than bombers, don't you think?

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 01:11 AM
The
mikeyg007 wrote:
- - This would be mainly true of fighters, rahter than
- bombers, don't you think?
-
-

The postedchart covers both types.

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 01:51 AM
So maybe the whining about "Whah I got killed by a (insert just about any plane/flight model/AI gunner here), this needs to be fixed!1" needs to stop. It was war, people without skills (or luck!) well above the norm got killed. As such, it seems IL2FB does a pretty good job of modelling just that.


One of the things I like about VEF, is the loss of points when you die. It encourages the playerbase to fly just a little bit more carefully, breaking off when the odds are not in your favor. If any of us had actually been flying during WW2, I have a feeling we'd have been a lot more cautious in the tactics we'd use, and how long we'd stay in a fight, assuming you're in an aircraft that gives you the opportunity to escape.



Message Edited on 10/11/0302:51AM by dapendragon

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 01:57 AM
American bomber crew losses were as high as 75% at one point in the war. It was the range of the Mustang that helped to stem that tide of death. With the 332nd Fighter Group it was 0%. A few individual crewman didnt make it back...but every bomber escorted by the Redtails made it home. Hats off to all those brave men on all sides.

<CENTER>http://www.world-wide-net.com/tuskegeeairmen/ta-1943.jpg <marquee><FONT COLOR="RED"><FONT SIZE="+1">"Straighten up.......Fly right..~S~"<FONT SIZE> </marquee> http://www.geocities.com/rt_bearcat

<CENTER><FONT COLOR="ORANGE">vflyer@comcast.net<FONT COLOR>
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XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 03:24 AM
Man ......... I'm stunned, after I read those stats I just sat there for about 60 seconds before I went on to the other post. Sad, very sad.

"We make war that we may live in peace."

Aristotle

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 03:29 AM
Bearcat99 wrote:

- every bomber
- escorted by the Redtails made it home.


Sorry Bearcat, but this isn't exactly accurate.

While it is generally accepted that no bombers were lost to enemy fighters during this time, even the Redtails couldn't prevent the German flak batteries from shooting down some of the bombers on their watch.




<center><img src= "http://www.luftwaffepics.com/LCBW4/FW190-A0-52.jpg" height=215 width=365>

<center>"We are now in a position of inferiority...There is no doubt in my mind, nor in the minds of my fighter pilots, that the FW190 is the best all-round fighter in the world today."

Sholto Douglas, 17 July 1942

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 05:24 AM
Every Bomber, the planes. Yes crewmen were killed. He's talking about the planes.

It is a recorded historical fact; the Tuskeegee Airmen brought every bomber home.

http://home.comcast.net/~ick_352nd/

http://home.comcast.net/~ick_352nd/aceshigh.jpg

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 10:43 AM
Zyzbot wrote:
- The
- mikeyg007 wrote:
-- - This would be mainly true of fighters, rahter than
-- bombers, don't you think?
--
--
-
- The postedchart covers both types.
-
-
What I'm hypothesising is that while survival through your first few sorties will make a dramatic difference to the life chances of a fighter pilot, for a bomber crew it will make less difference. You just have to take your chances every time. Of course experience will improve your chances in a bomber a bit, but not nearly so much as for a fighter pilot, I wouldn't have thought.

In short -
fighter pilot - 1st 10 sorties absolutely deadly - then not so bad.
bomber crew - pretty dicey every damn time.

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 11:09 AM
I remember reading Freeman Dyson's account in "Disturbing the Universe" of the first use of operational analysis in the RAF's night bomber campaign. What the scientists discovered was that the crew experience made little difference to their chances of survival. They interpreted this as meaning (correctly) that the German night fighters were so good that if one intercepted a bomber, the bomber's survival depended only on the performance of the night fighter and that the bomber's defensive capabilities were minimal.

The recommendation was made to the RAF that night bombers should be flown without defensive armament and so without gunners (since it didn't work). This would have greatly reduced the loss or aircrew if an aircraft was shot down, and the extra speed that could be reached because of the reduction in weight and drag would actually make interception less likely. The RAF rejected the recommendation on the grounds that aircrew morale in (apparently) undefended bombers would plummet.

Regards,

RocketDog.




Message Edited on 10/11/0310:10AM by RocketDog

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 01:09 PM
In 1942 torpedo bomber aircrews were the walking dead.No matter what side they flew on.

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 04:14 PM
ericson wrote:
- In 1942 torpedo bomber aircrews were the walking
- dead.No matter what side they flew on.

I remember reading a comment from an american naval aviator in the Pacific War. He recalled that the torpedo crews never flew CAP, never flew patrols, never flew recon, and no-one had anything bad to say about the torpedo crew, because when they were called to fly, they were off to almost certain death.

chilling thought...


cheers,
Tony
(flying as "wombat" on HL)


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oh yeah, and I'm a Whirlwind whiner too /i/smilies/16x16_smiley-happy.gif

XyZspineZyX
10-11-2003, 04:46 PM
the mosy didnt have defensive guns
and that was a damn fast plane, used to out run german fighters /i/smilies/16x16_smiley-very-happy.gif
is that lost asin dead, or captured/incapsitated too?
imagine being a jap torp bomber, cos american put up a wall of fire didnt they? or similer
for the kamikaze, i think they had every damn gun they could fireing away, mainly at a sector they where given to defend