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View Full Version : How much do you think Origins has to sell, to become a success?



joshoolhorst
08-13-2017, 04:05 PM
AC Origins seems to be the biggest AC game yet to this date and this post has been made so I wonder how much money do they need to earn or let's just say the amount of copies every main AC hame sales millions of copies world wide.

Helforsite
08-13-2017, 04:50 PM
8 million copies sold: success.
10 million copies sold: big success.
12 million copies sold: huge sucess.
14 million copies sold: record for franchise.

strigoi1958
08-13-2017, 08:12 PM
That is a good guess, I think the numbers can be lower for it to be considered a financial success because it is digital. When physical copies are made.... there are production costs and wastage (all the money spent on unsold copies) plus shipping costs... all those overheads eat into the profits and that saving is substantial.

So I would consider.

5 to 6 million copies sold: success.
6 to 8 million copies sold: big success.
over 8 million copies sold: huge success.

I'm basing this on sales in the next 2 years. Because by 2014..... 73 million copies of games from the AC franchise were sold, by the end of 2016 over 100 million were sold, obviously, Ubisofts generosity with the bundles has really helped sell games so in 10 years the figures I state will undoubtedly be passed... but I expect Origins to be very successful just going by what little I have seen already of the game and its features.

It wouldn't surprise me to see it pass 10 million quite quickly.

joshoolhorst
08-13-2017, 09:23 PM
That is a good guess, I think the numbers can be lower for it to be considered a financial success because it is digital. When physical copies are made.... there are production costs and wastage (all the money spent on unsold copies) plus shipping costs... all those overheads eat into the profits and that saving is substantial.

So I would consider.

5 to 6 million copies sold: success.
6 to 8 million copies sold: big success.
over 8 million copies sold: huge success.

I'm basing this on sales in the next 2 years. Because by 2014..... 73 million copies of games from the AC franchise were sold, by the end of 2016 over 100 million were sold, obviously, Ubisofts generosity with the bundles has really helped sell games so in 10 years the figures I state will undoubtedly be passed... but I expect Origins to be very successful just going by what little I have seen already of the game and its features.

It wouldn't surprise me to see it pass 10 million quite quickly.

How much has every Assassin's Creed game sold by now?

strigoi1958
08-13-2017, 10:35 PM
I'm not sure. vgchartz website has a rough guide but apparently does not include all sales figures... but the figures I quoted come from a ubisoft blog which I cannot find but gamespot and escapist both mention it

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/assassins-creed-franchise-reaches-100-million-copi/1100-6443544/

Edit

In my post above I should also have mentioned that Origins may also have slightly less sales because of people with very bad internet service who rely on physical copies not buying Origins.... so again it is something that should be considered as it will affect sales.


below is just ballpark figures from vgchartz of the main games
AC1 over 11 Million
AC2 over 11 Million
ACB over 7 Million
ACR over 9 Million
AC3 over 13 Million
AC4 over 13 Million
ACU over 8 Million
SYN over 5 Million
ROGUE over 1 Million

Plus the handheld games and Liberation and Chronicles also Ezio's trilogy sold 1 million+

Also the reason I think it will do very well, is I believe the combat will bring in players who are new to AC but who played the games like Dark Souls/ Witcher 3.

SixKeys
08-14-2017, 01:13 AM
Keep in mind those sales numbers are the total numbers for how many copies have sold for each game. Black Flag took years to reach AC3's numbers, but by now it has probably already surpassed it. So ACO's initial sales numbers should not be taken as representative of its overall success.

LoyalACFan
08-14-2017, 03:44 AM
Keep in mind those sales numbers are the total numbers for how many copies have sold for each game. Black Flag took years to reach AC3's numbers, but by now it has probably already surpassed it. So ACO's initial sales numbers should not be taken as representative of its overall success.

It'll still be important though. Unfortunately, the way that sales charting works today really hurts the chances of "sleeper hits." If ACO doesn't put up respectable numbers right out of the gate, it'll be considered a bust, especially with the possible Vivendi takeover still looming over Ubisoft. It's even worse for movies; if a film doesn't at least break even in its opening weekend, it gets called a "bomb" in the headlines and that further poisons the movie in the eyes of potential viewers.

strigoi1958
08-14-2017, 01:14 PM
But as I said we have to take into account the loss from physical copies. It is not just the reduced availability of the product but also the loss of promotion and advertising from the stores that sell them. As more people get access to better internet then sales will grow but I still expect Origins to do very well. Listening to what Ash has said and looking at the gameplay, puzzles, map and combat the game looks fantastic for people like me who just play the game. Story wise, MD, 1st Civ, Lore... I cannot say because it doesn't interest me and as such I've not looked for it... But the game looks great and will appeal to players who have enjoyed this style of game but have not played AC... I think it will bring in new fans to our brotherhood and probably increase sales of previous games as newcomers who enjoy the current game do tend to buy more.

Whether the extended gap between Syndicate and Origins has made fans more excited to play Origins or has given them time to find a new game to follow we will see, but I think it is more than good enough to bring a lot of fans flooding back.

cawatrooper9
08-14-2017, 02:48 PM
I think if we can get over 8 million, it will show that AC has earned its spot in the public's heart again, after the relatively disappointing post-Black Flag era. Though, given the relative hype surrounding it, I imagine we may approach 10 million.

Ultimately, though, I think factors more intangible than copies sold will determine the success of this game. I have a feeling that more than ever, this is a "make or break" title for the series- both from a developer point of view, and for many fans as well. The legacy that Origins leaves could very well determine the direction this franchise takes in the future.

dxsxhxcx
08-14-2017, 03:16 PM
I believe the setting alone will be responsible for a lot of sales (like I think Black Flag's pirate theme played a big part on its success as well). AC has many flaws, but the world it builds are usually beatiful and I'm certain many people are curious to explore it.

Megas_Doux
08-15-2017, 01:01 AM
It really depends on productions costs!

Speaking of which, I think is fairly just to assume Ubi is saving money with this almost non-existent marketing.