View Full Version : Arkath's cost/effect analyse

06-22-2015, 11:12 AM
I believe that Arkath's cost does not match its effect.
Either the card is undercosted (too cheap for the effect) or the effect is overpowered (too strong for its cost).

Let's take several cards into consideration:

1. A tear in the veil. Event card. Cost 1. Makes your next spell's damage unpreventable.
2. Insect swarm. Spell card. Cost 3. Board-wide mass removal. 3 damage.
3. Armageddon. Spell card. Cost 6. Board-wide mass removal. 10 damage.
4. Arkath's wrath. Spell card. Cost 5. Board-wide unpreventable mass removal. 5 damage.

Let's talk about cost. What is the cost of a card? Basically, it's the cost of its effect. Let's try to calculate the cost for Arkath's:

Cost(Arkath's) = Cost(Effect 1) + Cost(Effect 2) + Cost(CA)

where Effect 1 is damage. Effect 2 is unpreventability of said damage.
CA is a card advantage created by combining several effects in one card.

Also, we can note that:

Cost(Effect 2) = Cost (Tear) + Cost(US) = 1 + Cost(US)

where US is use stability gained by switching the card type from event (which user has no control over) to spell itself.

Cost(Arkath's) = Cost(Effect 1) + Cost (Tear) + Cost(US) + Cost(CA) = Cost(Effect 1) + 1 + Cost(US) + Cost(CA)

Now, let's try to calculate the cost of the damage part of Arkath's (Effect 1).
It's obvious that it's cost should lie between the costs of Swarm and Armageddon:

Cost(Swarm) < Cost(Effect 1) < Cost(Armageddon)
3 < Cost(Effect 1) < 6

Using linear interpolation we can value:
Cost(Effect 1) ~ 3,86

Cost(Arkath's) = Cost(Effect 1) + 1 + Cost(US) + Cost(CA) ~ 3,86 + 1 + Cost(US) + Cost(CA) = 4,86 + Cost(US) + Cost(CA)

While we don't know the exact values for CA and US, I believe that card advantage alone must be valued at least 0,5 or maybe even higher.
That would put total cost of Arkath's at around 5,5.

Right now, the ingame cost is 5, which leads to the conclusion I posted at the beginning: Cost/Effect balance is off.

What can be done about the card?
There are several possible ways to deal with it:
1) The cost can be increased to 6. I think that it's not a good solution, as that will turn undercosted card into overcosted one.
2) The damage can be decreased to 4. That would bring total cost to 4,43 + Cost(US) + Cost(CA), which is closer to current ingame cost of 5. Personally, I think that solution 2 is the best.
3) The magic requirement can be bumped to 6. That would somewhat eliminate CA from card cost as user must up one more stat and draw one less card during the game. However, it doesn't work for multiple Arkath's during one game.

Thanks for reading.
Fell free to discuss.

06-23-2015, 06:16 PM
Increasing requeriments or cost, or even both, would be the nice.

We have now new creatures and old reworked creatures, itīs easy to set a 6 hp threshold in your deck with almost every faction, for most of your 2 and 3 drops, mainly 3. We still play with a lot of 2 drops though, since they are very important, a hand without 2 drops is a bad hand almost always.

I think you shouldnīt put armaggedon there, itīs another broken legacy spell, arkath is in standard. Compared to std spells you should talk about frozen wave and IS, Imo.

As you say, itīs a bit undercosted, I think they made arkath for stall mass rage decks, to make the archetype viable in standard too, which is a bad idea in my opinion.
Itīs the kind of spell that you need to play decks with few creatures, you can use a first arkaths to get huge card advantage and stop your opponent, or even 2 arkaths with 10 mana for a board reset. It also makes inferno control better.

I think that a higher magic requeriment would be great to slow down mass rage decks a bit, I donīt think inferno control is op enough to get a nerf but it wouldnīt kill the faction...